Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Estimates for ARC (NYSE: ARP) for Q2 2010 - UPDATE TO PREVIOUS POST!!!

On July 25th, I did a fairly long-winded post about estimates for ARC for Q2 2010.

Now, I'm going to update the 'analyst estimates' that were in that post. In the July 25th post, I cautioned you that analysts do, on occasion, update their previously-issued estimates.

I've already mentioned to you that I'm a subscriber to Morningstar Research (a huge company, but one that no longer follows or reports on ARC), and that I'm also a subscriber to PAA Research (PAA is smaller than Morningstar, but PAA does research and report on ARC, and word has it that some of the financial industry's largest hedge fund operators are subscribers to PAA's research. I don't think I was supposed to mention that, but, oh well, I just did.)

Within the past week, PAA Research conducted and completed a survey of reprographers. The survey that PAA Research did should not be confused with the survey that Baird & Co is doing in cooperation with the IRGA. I've seen both surveys - PAA's and Baird's - they are very different. I consider myself to be fairly knowledgeable about the reprographics business and industry - some say I am an expert (hmmmm) - all I've got to say is that PAA's survey includes the types of questions I would be asking if I were doing a survey - in other words, Mr. Safalow, a financial person, DOES "get" our industry. I certainly can't say that about a lot of other "finance" people who attempt to follow and report on the reprographics industry.

This paragraph appeared in my July 25th post:
Okay, now I’ll give you a roundup of the revenue and earnings estimates I’ve found for ARC for Q2 2010. Please note that I did my research for this post today, July 25th, and analysts frequently revise and update their estimates, so this roundup is “as of today.”


Now, read this:
One analyst who follows ARC, PAA Research, issued revised estimates for ARC (NYSE: ARP) on July 28th. I've updated the estimates that appear below for the revised PAA Research estimates:


Prior numbers, for reference purposes:

Revenue Q2 2009 (same quarter, last year): $131.05 (million)
EPS Q2 2009: $.14

Revenue Q1 2010 (previous quarter, this year): $112.2 (million)
EPS Q1 2010: $.02

FIRST UP, REVENUE ESTIMATES FOR Q2 2010

On Yahoo.com Finance:
Number of analysts: 3
High estimate: $117.45 (million)
Low estimate: $113.83 (million)
Average estimate: $115.76 (million)

On PleaseActAccordingly.com
As per article of April 8, 2010 - Estimate: $118.5 (million)
As per article on July 28, 2010 - Estimate revised to $123.5 (million)

NEXT UP, EPS ESTIMATES FOR Q2 2010

On Marketwatch.com:
Number of estimates: 2
High Estimate: $.09
Low Estimate: $.04
Mean Estimate: $.07

On MSN.com:
Number of estimates: 4
High Estimate: $.06
Low Estimate: $.04
Mean Estimate: $.05

On Yahoo.com Finance:
Number of estimates: 3
High Estimate: $.06
Low Estimate: $.04
Average Estimate: $.05

On PleaseActAccordingly.com
As per article of April 8, 2010 - Estimate: $.10
As per article on July 28, 2010 - Estimate remains at $.10

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Joel's estimates for ARC’s numbers for Q2 2010 remain at:
Revenues, $119.5 (million)
EPS: $.08

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Newest Larry Hunt Publication - "Wide Format Newsletter"

I recently came across a Press Release about the launch of Larry Hunt Publications' newest publication - the "Wide Format Newsletter".

I've been a fan of Larry Hunt's publications for many years, probably since around the time it was first founded. My first company became a member of NAQP back in the mid 1970's, and the NAQP was how I later learned of Larry Hunt's very first publication. Giant Food, the largest grocery store chain in the D.C. area (which is where I hail from), used to have a slogan, "our best customer is an educated consumer." Well, if you've been a subscriber to Larry Hunt's publications over the years, then, when you made your decisions to purchase equipment (a copier, digital printer, or a multifunction system), you were probably a lot more informed about pricing in the marketplace for the equipment you purchased, and your choice of equipment was probably influenced by what Larry Hunt said about different brands and models.

After I read the press release, I visited Larry Hunt's web-site to see what else I could find, and, at the very bottom of the first page, it shows (links to) a few other sites of interest:

* John Stewart (Industry Consultant)
* John Giles ("The Digital Guru")
* Dave Fellman (Industry Consultant)
* NAQP
* Print Owners

Okay, here's the press release about Larry Hunt's newest newsletter:

Larry Hunt Publications recently announced the launch of Larry Hunt’s Wide Format Newsletter, which joins Larry’s two current newsletters: High Speed Copy News and Color Copy News. Larry has been producing these two highly successful newsletters for almost twenty years. Based on the tremendous response to a recent wide-format survey, as well as increased reader interest in this topic, he noted that “we have decided to introduce a wide-format newsletter. We are convinced that there is a need for comprehensive coverage of wide format reproduction”.

This new publication will focus on trends and issues related to wide format reproduction. Extensive surveys will help users decide on equipment purchases, with an emphasis on negotiating for best deals with up to date equipment pricing. “The Wide Format Newsletter will help you tap into one of the fastest growing markets in the graphic arts”, noted Larry Hunt. “It will offer tips to better utilize existing equipment, and ways to make better profits in high margin ancillary services. In addition, it will provide all the price data, field reports, user surveys and other features you’ve come to expect from my publications”.

Larry added that “Dirck Holscher, a fellow quick printer and good friend, will be partnering with me to publish this new newsletter and work closely with me on the other newsletters. Dirck has been writing and speaking about printing technology and business topics for many years, and will provide his unique expertise to the newsletters”. The editors will continue to offer individual assistance to readers with evaluation of the best equipment choice at a fair price. Many readers say this is the most valuable part of their subscription. For more information about all three newsletters, you can visit www.larryhunt.com.

Estimates for ARC (NYSE: ARP) for Q2 2010

Okay, ARC will soon be releasing its Q2 2010 “actual” numbers (Revenues and EPS), and I know everyone is waiting, waiting, waiting ….. and anxious to see ARC’s results! (ARC will be releasing its numbers after market close on August 3rd.)

I just checked on Schwab.com, and the current Equity Rating for ARC (NYSE: ARP) is “Outperform” (in other words, a “buy” recommendation.) (That Equity Rating was as of July 16, 2010.)

ARC released its Q1 2010 numbers on May 4, 2010. On April 26, eight days before the Q1 2010 press release, ARC’s shares closed at $10.87.

Since then, the lowest price ARC’s shares have closed at was $8.12*, which was the closing price on July 15th. However, ARC’s shares have had an impressive surge the past 10 days; ARC shares closed at $9.13 on July 23rd.

Okay, so we are now about 8 days before ARC issues its Q2 2010 earnings release, and, as I just said, ARC’s shares closed at $9.13 on Friday.

I’m going to give you a “roundup” of the revenue and earnings estimates I’ve seen for ARC for Q2 2010. But, first, I’m going to make a few comments:

For Q1 2010, one analyst, Brad Safalow of PAA Research, LLC (www.pleaseactaccordingly.com) was “right on the mark” with his estimates of ARC’s Q1 2010 Sales and Earnings Per Share. While I would say that “his crystal ball must be working properly”, I am a subscriber to PAA, and, having read all of the reports PAA has issued about ARC, ever since PAA began following ARC, I am well aware that Mr. Safalow does an extensive amount of research about ARC and the Reprographics Industry (and the AEC Industry that most of ARC’s revenues are generated from), enough to know that “crystal ball” does not apply to Mr. Safalow. Quite frankly, I’ve read analyst research reports from other investment research companies – and I’m referring to very large companies – and I’ve yet to find another investment research company that has “as good a grip” as Mr. Safalow has on ARC and the Reprographics Industry. The depth of his research and analysis is very impressive!

Most reprographers are aware that (at least) two different companies – Robert W. Baird & Co and PAA Research, LLC - are periodically conducting “surveys” on the AEC Reprographics Industry. Apparently, Baird’s survey is limited to reprographers who are members of the IRGA. It is my understanding that PAA Research’s survey is not limited to IRGA members. Without question, those surveys are being conducted so that these two firms, who both report on ARC and who from time to time issue recommendations about ARC stock, can make informed estimates and comments.

Okay, now I’ll give you a roundup of the revenue and earnings estimates I’ve found for ARC for Q2 2010. Please note that I did my research for this post today, July 25th, and analysts frequently revise and update their estimates, so this roundup is “as of today.”

Prior numbers, for reference purposes:

Revenue Q2 2009 (same quarter, last year): $131.05 (million)
EPS Q2 2009: $.14

Revenue Q1 2010 (previous quarter, this year): $112.2 (million)
EPS Q1 2010: $.02

FIRST UP, REVENUE ESTIMATES FOR Q2 2010

On Yahoo.com Finance:
Number of analysts: 3
High estimate: $117.45 (million)
Low estimate: $113.83 (million)
Average estimate: $115.76 (million)

On PleaseActAccordingly.com (as per article of April 8, 2010)
Estimate: $118.5 (million)

NEXT UP, EPS ESTIMATES FOR Q2 2010

On Marketwatch.com:
Number of estimates: 2
High Estimate: $.09
Low Estimate: $.04
Mean Estimate: $.07

On MSN.com:
Number of estimates: 4
High Estimate: $.06
Low Estimate: $.04
Mean Estimate: $.05

On Yahoo.com Finance:
Number of estimates: 3
High Estimate: $.06
Low Estimate: $.04
Average Estimate: $.05

On PleaseActAccordingly.com (as per article of April 8, 2010)
Estimate: $.10
(Note: I am not aware that PAA has updated its estimate since April 8)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Joel’s further comments:

As I’ve pointed out in previous posts, I have a crystal ball, somewhere, but it does not work. And, as I’ve also previously pointed out, I did not graduate from Stanford, Harvard, Wharton or Columbia. In addition, I’ve never worked for a finance or investment company, nor for a mutual fund or a hedge fund. (The only hedge I’m very knowledgeable about it is the one in front of my house.)

But, putting all that aside, I’m now going to take a SWAG “stab” at ARC’s Q2 2010 numbers. (Definitely, SWAG method.)

Things my SWAG estimates consider:

1) Traditionally, the 2nd Quarter of each year is the strongest quarter of the year for reprographers. Even though ARC’s Q2 2009 revenues were less than its Q1 2009 revenues (and that was not normal, that was an anomaly), I’m guessing that there has been at least some “stabilization” this year in the reprographics market and that ARC’s Q2 2010 sales will exceed its Q1 2010 sales. (And, if we see that that happened, that will at least be refreshing, because it may mean a return to “normal” seasonality.)

2) By now, most of the Fed stimulus money is in the AEC marketplace, not sitting on the sidelines waiting to be committed. ARC should benefit at least somewhat because of that.

3) ARC indicated in past Press Releases that it was going to be pushing hard into the “non” AEC reprographics marketplace. ARC established a sub-brand, “RIOT COLOR” and has been pushing into the color imaging marketplace. By now, I’m guessing that ARC has experienced at least some growth in revenues due to its non-AEC reprographics initiatives.

4) ARC has interests in businesses in China and India. ARC’s market share (of the total reprographics market) in those two extremely large nations has to be very small, considering the very short period of time that ARC has established its interests in those two countries. Which gives ARC the opportunity to grow its revenues in two large countries with enormous populations and huge demand for housing, hospitals, schools, universities, retail, office buildings, infrastructure improvements, etc. I’m guessing that ARC’s revenues and EPS will benefit from its interests in China and India.

I don’t like to bet against Brad Safalow of PAA Research, for, as I said earlier, he hit the numbers “right on the money” last quarter. But.....

My estimates for ARC’s numbers for Q2 2010:
Revenues, $119.5 (million)
EPS: $.08

WilsonMiller acquired by Stantec

A visit to the web-site of the Tampa Bay Business Journal revealed news that Stantec is acquiring WilsonMiller (transaction is expect to close in July).

WilsonMiller is an engineering firm based in Naples, FL (with office locations in ten Florida cities), and, due to the fact that I visited WilsonMiller's Naples office, several times over the years when I was with NGI, I know at least bit about WilsonMiller. For one thing, the President & COO of WilsonMiller, Fermin Diaz, is one of the nicest, friendliest people you could ever hope to meet and chat with. And, WilsonMiller's CTO, Walter Johnson, is a very smart technology guru. (I'm guessing that Walter is still with WilsonMiller.)

Stantec, which I think is based in Canada (I'm not positive about that; when I went to visit Stantec's web-site this morning, I could not, for some unknown reason, get on it) is a much larger company than WilsonMiller. Stantec has around 9,500 employees in Canada and the U.S. (and possibly some overseas?) Stantec has been an acquisitive company over the years; one of those - Stantec purchased The Keith Companies in California back around 2005, and, at the time of acquisition, The Keith Companies employed approximately 800 team members. Stantec has purchased several other companies.

The WilsonMiller acquisition greatly increases Stantec's presence in the State of Florida. And, WilsonMiller is a highly respected engineering firm. Congrats to the WilsonMiller team.

Beyond that, one has to wonder why WilsonMiller decided to be acquired. Did the recession cause WilsonMiller to seek association with a much larger firm, one that has not been hurt by the depression-like conditions in the AEC sector in Florida? Stantec appears to have a very solid P&L and Balance Sheet.

There are already a number of national and international engineering firms doing business in Florida, including Parsons Brinkerhoff, CDM, HNTB, HDR, ARCADIS, AMECOM, MACTEC (and there are others.) WilsonMiller was only in business in Florida, so WilsonMiller is a very good fit for Stantec.

But, one also has to wonder if this deal (and deals like this one that have previously happened with Florida-based engineering firms) will influence some of Florida's other "independent" engineering firms (I am speaking about those who are based in Florida) to consider selling to, or merging with, very large firms like Stantec. Will PBSJ go that route, eventually? Will RS&H and King Engineering go that route, eventually?

Okay, here's the story that appeared in the Tampa Bay Business Journal (July 20th, 2010) about the Stantec/WilsonMiller deal:

WilsonMiller, which for more the 50 years has been involved in some of Florida’s most visible real estate projects, has agreed to be acquired by the Canadian design firm Stantec.

Company officials would not disclose the purchase price. The deal is expected to close on Friday. Stantec (NYSE: STN) has more than 150 North American offices including Tampa and Sarasota. The acquisition boosts the company’s Florida payroll from about 40 to more than 300 workers.

“We believe that WilsonMiller will be a catalyst for future growth of Stantec in Florida, which despite the current difficult economic climate, still remains one of the largest markets in the country,” Bob Gomes, president and chief executive officer, said in a release. “They bring a talented team that managed their company very well through the recession and is now well positioned to take advantage of opportunities in both the public and private sectors.”

The firm will be called WilsonMiller Stantec for the time being.

A company spokesman said there is no plan to layoff any of WilsonMiller’s 265 employees or close any of its 10 Florida offices, including Tampa and Sarasota.

WilsonMiller, based in Naples, has a portfolio of projects that includes the redevelopment of Tampa’s Channel District and the Ave Maria town and university development in Collier County east of Naples.

“Throughout our history, we have proactively adapted to meet the changing needs of our clients and communities,” Alan Reynolds, chairman and CEO of WilsonMiller, said in the release. “Joining with Stantec is the next step for us to take to become part of an international network that gives our clients access to a much wider range of services and expertise as well as provides our employees with better technical resources and more opportunities to grow their careers.”

Reynolds will stay with the new company in an as yet undisclosed “leadership role,” Stantec spokesman Jay Averill said.

Stantec has done primarily geo-technical and environmental work since coming to Florida in 2006. Averill said the acquisition of Wilson Miller will help the company expand its reach in the fields of transportation, urban land development, and engineering and design work for commercial and industrial buildings.

Stantec acquired Industry and Energy Associates LLC (NYSE: IEA), a 60-person engineering company headquartered in Portland, Maine, earlier this month. Averill would not disclose whether the company is eyeing other Florida firms.

Recent "Construction Spending Report" on Associated Builders & Contractors web-site

There was a very interesting article posted on July 1, 2010 on ABC's (Associated Builders and Contractors) web-site. That article talks about "construction spending".

You can access the full article at this Internet address:
http://www.abc.org/Hot_Links/ConstructionEconomicsIndex/Construction_Spending_Jul_201.aspx

For me, the most interesting part of the article was the "analysis" part. That analysis was provided by Anirban Basu, ABC's "Chief Economist."

Below, you'll find Mr. Basu's analysis. (I've taken the liberty of "bolding" some of his comments, simply so they will stand out.)

Analysis

“One could view today's release as positive news,” said Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “The level of construction spending in May hardly changed from the prior month, and April represented an improvement over March. However, for the most part, today's report should be viewed as further indication that the U.S. economic recovery continues to stall.

“Construction spending growth, to the extent that it exists, continues to be the domain of publicly-financed projects, particularly those attached to the stimulus package passed in February 2009,” said Basu. “This is clearly apparent in the list of subsectors that continue to register year-over-year growth, such as conservation and development, transportation and highway/street.

“If the increase in construction spending was motivated by privately-financed activities, there would be a basis upon which to rejoice since that would be an indication that the private portion of the construction economy is gaining traction,” Basu said. “Privately-motivated growth can be sustained indefinitely, at least theoretically. On the other hand, publicly financed growth associated with deficit spending cannot last into perpetuity, not even theoretically.

“Unfortunately, steep year-over-year declines continue to be apparent in privately-financed, developer-driven activities, most notably in construction spending related to lodging, which has declined 62.1 percent over the past twelve months,” said Basu.

“The bottom line is that the impact of the stimulus will eventually run out. When that happens, privately financed activities will need to be expanding merely to hold construction spending level in the U.S. In the absence of private momentum, the near-term remains largely positive for segments directly impacted by stimulus dollars and largely negative for those that are not,” Basu said.

Current Construction Industry Conditions In the U.K. - - are apparently about the same as they are in the U.S.

There is a very well-written article about current conditions in the U.K. Construction Industry.

The title of that article:
The tracker: Back to Reality (article is dated 16 July 2010)

The sub-heading under the title of the article:
Hopes that increased activity at the start of the year would continue into the summer were dashed as the activity index fell to a six-month low

And, you can read the full article (which has some nice charts and graphs) at this internet address:
http://www.building.co.uk/data/the-tracker-back-to-reality/5002638.article

AIA ABI Index for June 2010 - Very slight increase from May, but still under 50!

I still don't see the June ABI Index report on the AIA's web-site, but, after Googling a bit, I found an article on the Denver Business Journal's web-site that spoke about the June 2010 AIA ABI Index ......

From the Denver Business Journal:
Demand for architectural design services nationwide continued to decline in June — with the western states, including Colorado, reporting the lowest demand by region — according to an American Institute of Architects report Wednesday.

Nationwide, the AIA’s Architectural Billing Index, or ABI, was 46 last month, up slightly from 45.8 in May and an increase from 37.7 in June of ’09.


In the West, the ABI inched up to 43.6 last month from 42.9 in May, and rose from 39.9 for the prior-year June. The ABI is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, showing the nine- to 12-month lag between when architecture firms bill clients and when money is spent on a construction project. A score above 50 represents an increase in billings.

The ABI blames drops in commercial real estate values for the lack of new construction. “The steep decline in nonresidential property values has slowed investment in new facilities,” AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker said in a statement. “Conditions at architecture firms remain very soft, but we’re optimistic that they will improve before the end of the year.”

While less commercial construction is tough on the architectural and construction industries, it can be good for the absorption of vacant space in existing industrial, office and retail buildings, according to real estate brokers. It also keeps rental rates relatively strong.

For June, the northeastern part of the country had the highest ABI by region at 47.7, up from 42.8 for the same month last year but down from 50.6 in May. The South’s score last month was 46.7, up from 40.5 year over year and up from 45.9 the previous month. The Midwest’s June ABI was 46.3, up from 36.2 year over year but down from 48.5 in May.

The ABI is calculated from monthly surveys sent to AIA members, asking whether their billings increased, decreased or stayed the same from one month to the next. The score is created based on the proportion of respondents choosing each option.

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Joel's comment:

Just to repeat, Kermit Baker (of the AIA) said, “Conditions at architecture firms remain very soft, but we’re optimistic that they will improve before the end of the year.”

Kermit Baker is an optimist! But, remember, there's "power in positive thinking"! Let's HOPE that Kermit is right!

Friday, July 23, 2010

Cat and 3M Earnings Put Worries of Double-Dip to Rest - (WHAT!!!)

I'm a subscriber to Morningstar Research. Morningstar provides investment advice and does an extensive amount of research about public companies, ETF's, Mutual Funds, Bond Funds, etc, etc. Inasmuch as Morningstar's success is tied to the success of investors who invest in the market (rather than squirreling away their funds in a pillow or under the mattress), I think that it is reasonable to assume (even though I hate to assume anything) that Morningstar has a bias towards "positive" news rather than negative news. [Some of you may have heard the phrase "the power of positive thinking." (That phrase comes from the title of a book by author Norman Vincent Peale, and that book is an all-time-international-inspirational-best-seller.)] And, yes, I do agree that "positive thinking" is very important. Look at it this way, if you are the leader of a company and you have positive thoughts, a positive "we can do this" attitude (in spite of a negative environment!), then there is a chance that your company may actually do it, grow and succeed. But, if you are the leader of a company and you have a negative attitude, there is little chance that your company will grow and succeed, for negative thoughts become infectious throughout one's company, meaning, your team members will think negatively too!

Some of my blog-posts may cause you to think that I'm a pessimist. But, the opposite is actually the case; I'm the eternal optimist. That does not mean that I don't think that things (let's say the subject is the economy in the AEC industry) are always rosy and wonderful - because, in fact, nothing is rosy or wonderful "always", the AEC industry and the AEC reprographics industry experience ups and downs (and that's an "always") - it means that even when I don't think things are rosy and wonderful, there is still the opportunity to push forward, survive, grow again, succeed! Like I said, if you "don't think you can do it", you probably won't! And, if you do think "you can do it", you certainly have a better chance of getting it done than you would if you think you can't!

I have no idea why I got off on that tangent, so let me get back to talking about what I intended to talk about when I sat my butt down to write this blog-post.

The other day, I saw an article posted on Morningstar, an article that was a very upbeat article. It appeared in Morningstar's "Morning Digest" and the title of the article was, "Cat and 3M Earnings Put Worries of Double-Dip to Rest". Morningstar's Adam Fleck (the Morningstar team member who authored that article) thinks the strength of industrial earnings this quarter have put to rest fears of an imminent economic downturn.

I would be willing to be anyone that Morningstar's revenues and profits are greater during periods when demand for stocks, bonds, ETF's, Mutual funds, blah blah, etc. is strong and that the opposite is also the case. Demand (appetite "to buy") is what drives up the prices of stocks ... and, when stock prices go up, the market averages go up. When there is that sort of climate in the market, investors want to make even more informed decisions for their portfolios, and that's where Morningstar fits it (subscriptions to Morningstar.) So, when I read an article from a Morningstar team member, I always try to remind myself that it is in Morningstar's best interests for its team members to write positive, rather than negative, articles.

Recently, I did a post (on July 11th) that mentioned Dr. Hussman. Dr. Hussman said, in a very recent article posted on his company's web-site, that "his signs" say that we are going to enter a double-dip, quite soon. On July 15th, I received an e-mail from one of my reprographics industry friends (he is the President of one of the industry's larger companies), and, in his e-mail, he said:

"Hi, Joel, I hope all is well. I saw you posted some comments by John Hussman. Let me tell you, I have been following Hussman for years, and as far as I am concerned, he is one of the top economists, and possibly the best, in the U.S. As an economics major at _____, and a finance major at _____, I know something about economics. But more importantly – and it’s the only thing that counts, actually – he has simply been correct on every prediction, whereas almost everyone else has been wrong. He nailed the recession in 2000. He nailed the one in 2008. He nailed the associated bubbles too. Put your money on this guy, and forget about what you read from 99% of the other guys in the media."

Now, you might be thinking that my friend who said this is a pessimist for thinking that Dr. Hussman's prediction of a double-dip is likely right on. But, the friend who said this is the leader of a company that continues to be very aggressive in the industry, in spite of the downturn the economy experienced! That is the mark of an optimist, and optimism is infectious as well. While he maintains an "eye on" what might prove to be more stormy weather, he is positioning his company to continue its success.

Anyway, back to Dr. Hussman and the Morningstar article I mentioned, on the one hand, Dr. Hussman says that we are headed into a double-dip, and, on the other hand, the author of the Morningstar says (or at least implies) that, because Catepillar and 3M had positive news, "the strength of industrial earnings this quarter have put to rest fears of an imminent economic downturn". Well, certainly two completely opposite points of view!

Which guess is correct, double-dip?, no double-dip? How the hell should I know; I've told you before, I'm not all that smart. And, I don't have a crystal ball. (Actually, now that I think about it, I do have a small crystal ball somewhere, but it must be defective because I never got it to work!)

And, on the subject of crystal balls, I'm now old enough to realize that the substantial majority of those who hold themselves out to be experts in investments, finance and economics and who get paid to make predictions and give advice - whether it be predictions about sales and earnings, or predictions about future stock prices ("target prices", is what I'm speaking of), or predictions about the direction of the economy, or, closer to home, predictions of "recovery" in the residential construction market, or predictions of "recovery" in the non-residential market - don't know their ass from left base! They get paid to GUESS! (Damn, I'd like to have a high paying job where I get paid to guess!)

Case in point. There was a time when some analysts (and financial-investment researchers) who follow ARC said that "ARC only gets 15% of its business from residential construction", therefore implying that non-residential would continue to be okay and ARC's sales and profits would not be hurt too badly. Hmmm. As Lewis Black might say, "well, that guy didn't know ___t!) How about a "buy recommendation" when the stock price was in the mid 20's? (and quickly moved down from that point.)

The point is, is there really "anyone out there" that really knows "what's going to happen .... and when it's going to happen"?

I don't know about the rest of you, but I've yet to find the guy (or gal) who has a working crystal ball.

But, beyond that, one must maintain a "positive thinking" attitude .... and maintain that whether times are great or tough or terrible. That, to me, is the key to being successful in business.

Sorry for the long-winded post, but when I read the title of the Morningstar article that said this, "Cat and 3M Earnings Put Worries of Double-Dip to Rest", it made me smile and laugh out loud, and I just had to share my glee with you!

FMI’s Construction Outlook: Second Quarter 2010

Here's the latest news about the Construction Industry in an article from an outfit called "FMI". On of my blog readers was very kind to bring this article to my attention.

FMI provides "management consulting" and "investment banking" services to the Construction Industry.

I have yet to read through the entire article, so no comments for now.

The full article and the report can be found at this internet address:

FMI’s Construction Outlook: Second Quarter 2010 Report Now Available
July 1, 2010, by Sarah Vizard

Here's the internet address for the article:
http://www.fminet.com/article/781

Here are some excerpts from the article:

"While there have been positive signs for the general economy, unfortunately, the outlook for put in place construction for 2010 remains bleak. Total construction in 2010 will be down 5% after declining in 2009. Residential construction is expected to begin recovering in 2010. Nonresidential construction will decline 16% in 2010. Nonbuilding construction will continue to be a positive contributor thanks to the support of power and conservation and development construction.

The construction industry should prepare for another year of decline in nonresidential construction. Construction lost 35,000 more jobs in May. There have been losses in 31 out of 33 consecutive months, bringing the construction unemployment rate to 20.1%, compared to 27.1% in the first quarter. An increase in residential construction in 2010 could begin to turn the employment situation, but it is unlikely that it would do much to offset the losses from nonresidential construction."

Thursday, July 22, 2010

OCE Q1 2010 Financial Results (and, will we see OCE's numbers in the future?)

Sorry, I forgot to mention this when I should have, like a couple of months ago.

OCE's Q1 2010 Financial Results can be found by going to this Internet address:

http://investor.oce.com/reports/reports/quarterly-reports-archive/default.aspx

It's always interesting to read about the AEC Reprographics Industy's largest vendor and to see how that vendor is doing. If you are in the reprographics business, you should spend a few minutes time to read OCE's Q1 2010 report.

Also, since Canon has acquired OCE, this may be the last time OCE has to report on its own. Or, maybe not. I have no idea about the public reporting obligations/requirements of a Japan-based company that owns a Netherlands-based company, or about the reporting obligations/requirements of a Netherlands-based company that's owned by a Japan-based company.

If Kinko's had been a publicly-held company before Fedex acquired it, we would have been able to read about Kinko's financial performance in 10Q's and 10K's. But, even if that had been the case, Kinko's, after the acquisition by Fedex, would no longer have had to report its numbers. And, today, Kinko's (Fedex Office's) performance numbers are "buried" in one of Fedex's operating segments. So, we can't see how Kinko's (Fedex Office) is performing. I think that's going to happen to OCE's numbers, but I'm not positive about that.