Link:
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Friday, August 15, 2014
Cashing in; What’s the Business Worth?
Interesting
article, and, apparently, it’s the first of several installments:
Autodesk reported strong results for its y/e 2015 second quarter
Here’s a portion of the "note" posted, this
morning, about Autodesk by a Morningstar Research analyst:
Autodesk
reported surprisingly strong second-quarter fiscal 2015 results. The firm
upgraded its full-year fiscal 2015 guidance and now expects billings growth of
10%-12% (from 7%-9%), revenue growth of 7%-9% (from 4%-6%), a non-GAAP
operating margin of 15-16% (from 14%-16%), and net subscription additions of
200,000-250,000 (from 150,000 to 200,000). The company noted a strong demand
environment across all geographic segments, good adoption of suite products,
and a continued successful transition to a subscription-based business model.
As a result, we have updated our financial model and raised our fair value
estimate to $54 from $51. We retain our wide moat rating.
For the
quarter, revenue rose 13% to $637 million on a reported and constant currency
basis. Revenue in the Americas, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Asia Pacific,
and emerging economies all grew double-digits during the quarter and reflected
a strong broad-based demand environment. Interestingly, standalone AutoCAD LT
sales, which had been waning, were resilient during the quarter after the firm
launched a desktop subscription offering, which helped boost the Flagship
segment. Autodesk’s traditional
Architecture, Engineering and Construction and Manufacturing businesses were
strong given the adoption of building information modelling, industrial
machinery, consumer, and automotive products. Non-GAAP operating margins
remained under pressure, and slipped to 18% from 24% in the prior year, as the
firm reinvested in its business model transition, cloud infrastructure, and bolt-on
acquisitions.
Autodesk's
subscription transition is progressing ahead of internal and external
expectations. We think the company’s fiscal 2018 financial targets look
appropriate and we are encouraged by the market’s adoption of subscriptions
(74,000 new subscribers were added during the quarter). Still, the stock is
trading slightly above our fair value and we would seek a wider margin of
safety before investing.
Sunday, August 3, 2014
Check out John Switzer’s new “EasyWider” web-site and blog!
Now up on John’s web-site, a primer for anyone involved in
the wide-format imaging industry.
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