Friday, September 12, 2014

InfoTrends' Predictions on Wide-Format Printing

Tim Greene is Director of InfoTrends’ Wide Format Printing Consulting Service, and, on September 1st, he posted an article on myprintresource, “Market Intelligence; What Can We Expect Now?”

It’s a well written article, and here’s the beginning of that article:

InfoTrends' forecasts on the wide-format digital printing market have just been published and there are a few key points that we want to explain to the market that put some of our projections into context. We forecast on a technology by technology basis, but as readers know there is a clear overlap or intersection between some of the production wide-format printing technologies available today. The forecasts also cover the wide-format technical and graphics markets, and while there are a few similarities, there are some huge differences between the ways these two key segments of the wide-format market work now.
Blog Publisher’s further comments:

Take a look at the bar chart – wide-format technical print volume - that appears on the first page of Tim’s article – that’s the bar chart that shows InfoTrends’ predictions as to the total volume of sq ft that was or will be produced, 2013 through 2018. 

Key takeaways from that chart:

-The overall total volume of wide-format technical document printing has declined and will continue to decline

-The portion of the total volume handled by ink-jet printers has grown and will continue to grow, continuing to reduce the total volume handled by LED printers

I disagree with InfoTrends’ predictions in one particular sense.  I DO THINK that, after HP releases (next year) its ink-jet based “pagewide” technical document printers, the percentage of the total volume handled by ink-jet vs. LED will grow much greater than the bar chart predicts.  I would not be at all surprised if, by 2018, LED output is less than 20% of the overall total volume of technical document output.  And, it could well be less than that!  I DO THINK that HP’s “pagewide” technical document printers are going to cause havoc in the LED printer manufacturing market.

Here’s a link to Tim’s excellent article:

Friday, August 15, 2014

Cashing in; What’s the Business Worth?

Interesting article, and, apparently, it’s the first of several installments:

Autodesk reported strong results for its y/e 2015 second quarter

Here’s a portion of the "note" posted, this morning, about Autodesk by a Morningstar Research analyst:

Autodesk reported surprisingly strong second-quarter fiscal 2015 results. The firm upgraded its full-year fiscal 2015 guidance and now expects billings growth of 10%-12% (from 7%-9%), revenue growth of 7%-9% (from 4%-6%), a non-GAAP operating margin of 15-16% (from 14%-16%), and net subscription additions of 200,000-250,000 (from 150,000 to 200,000). The company noted a strong demand environment across all geographic segments, good adoption of suite products, and a continued successful transition to a subscription-based business model. As a result, we have updated our financial model and raised our fair value estimate to $54 from $51. We retain our wide moat rating.
For the quarter, revenue rose 13% to $637 million on a reported and constant currency basis. Revenue in the Americas, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Asia Pacific, and emerging economies all grew double-digits during the quarter and reflected a strong broad-based demand environment. Interestingly, standalone AutoCAD LT sales, which had been waning, were resilient during the quarter after the firm launched a desktop subscription offering, which helped boost the Flagship segment. Autodesk’s traditional Architecture, Engineering and Construction and Manufacturing businesses were strong given the adoption of building information modelling, industrial machinery, consumer, and automotive products. Non-GAAP operating margins remained under pressure, and slipped to 18% from 24% in the prior year, as the firm reinvested in its business model transition, cloud infrastructure, and bolt-on acquisitions.

Autodesk's subscription transition is progressing ahead of internal and external expectations. We think the company’s fiscal 2018 financial targets look appropriate and we are encouraged by the market’s adoption of subscriptions (74,000 new subscribers were added during the quarter). Still, the stock is trading slightly above our fair value and we would seek a wider margin of safety before investing.

Sunday, August 3, 2014

Check out John Switzer’s new “EasyWider” web-site and blog!

Now up on John’s web-site, a primer for anyone involved in the wide-format imaging industry.