Just In Case You Were Wondering Why The Reprographics 101 Blog Went Dark Around April 2018….

The explanation is kinda simple, and I am a bit embarrassed to share this with you.

I’m an older person.  Nearly every time a web-site developer “upgrades” how their web-site workings work, those upgrades leave some of us – those who aren’t technically inclined – in the dust.  This blog operates using Google’s free “Blogger” service.  In April 2018, Google announced that it was “upgrading” its “Blogger” service.  As soon as Google did that, I was unable to put up posts. And, because I was ultra-ultra busy at that time with consulting work I do for clients, I did not bother to do anything more than cursory research to figure out why I wasn’t able to post on the blog.  So, I put the blog out of my mind.

It was very frustrating, annoying, aggravating, etc.  I’m certain that some of my frequent blog visitors said to themselves, “uh oh, looks like Joel must have died.”  Well, that did not happen!

I resumed posting sometime around the end of May 2020.  Why then?  Well, I decided to click on my blog and sign in, and, lo and behold, I found that I could post again!  Don’t expect a lot of posts.  I’m busy with consulting work.

Also, as a reminder, this blog is dedicated to the Reprographics Business and Industry.  If you are not involved in that Business and Industry, this blog is probably not where you want to spend time.

Thank you for visiting Reprographics 101.

Please refer the blog to your industry friends. 

Thank you,

Joel Salus

Publisher, Reprographics 101 Blog

joel.salus@mac.com

ECONOMICS STATS FROM MY FAVORATE STATS WEB-SITE

While I don’t see evidence of a V-shaped recovery, the stats are rebounding nicely.  Let’s hope that this summer’s surge in Covid-19 cases doesn’t unduly hold back our nation’s economic recovery.

BUILDING PERMITS REBOUNDING….

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/building-permits

HOUSING STARTS REBOUNDING…..

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts

US Homebuilder Sentiment Returns in July 2020 to Pre-Pandemic Levels

The NAHB housing market index in the US climbed 14 points from the previous month to 72 in July 2020, easily beating market expectations of 60, as sentiment rebounded following the easing of coronavirus-related restrictions. The current single-family sub-index rose to 79 from 63 in June and the one ….

LINK to full article:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/nahb-housing-market-index

AIA Architectural Billings Index for June 2020 was 40.0

AIA ABI Index June 2020: Business conditions at architecture firms begin to stabilize, fewer firms report declining billings this month

-      The AIA Architectural Billings Index for June 2020:  40.0

-      That compares to 32.0 previously reported for May 2020.

38% of firms predict a decrease in architecture staff at their firm by the end of the year, while 17% expect an increase

This month, Work-on-the-Boards participants are saying:

·      “There are still inquiries for projects, but there is increasing competition for work. Inquiries for projects over $5 million have decreased dramatically.”—25-person firm in the Midwest, commercial/industrial specialization

·      “Public K-12 education is about the only market area with projects continuing. The pricing from contractors has been very competitive and below estimates.”—100-person firm in the Midwest, institutional specialization

·      “Getting better in the Boston area–most projects that went on hold due to COVID-19 have restarted. New work inquiries are up as well.”—48-person firm in the Northeast, residential specialization

·      “More COVID-19 cases in our area, so attitudes are changing to believe this will last much longer than originally expected. Clients are being very conservative moving forward.”—65-person firm in the South, mixed specialization

I encourage everyone to read the full report; here’s the link:

https://www.aia.org/pages/6312971-abi-june-2020-business-conditions-at-archi

In 2019, Ms. Tracy Hiner of BLACK CROW STUDIOS (Long Beach, CA) was one of the six winners of the 2019 WOMEN IN PRINT AWARD (sponsored by Big Picture Magazine.)

Here’s a link to the most recent post by Tracy’s on Black Crow Studio’s blog:

https://www.blackcrowstudios.com/thoughts/2020/6/10/black-lives-matter-this-is-a-long-one

BIG PICTURE MAGAZINE ISSUES CALL FOR 2020 NOMINATIONS

Fifth Annual Women in Print Recognition

Nominate a female leader for the Women in Wide Format Awards today.

JUNE 17, 2020

Big Picture

Since 2016, Big Picture has honored six inspirational female leaders in the wide-format digital print sector each year. The fifth annual Women in Wide Format Awards (previously named the Women in Print Awards) will celebrate accomplished industry women who, through their careers, industry involvement, and philanthropic roles, have sparked innovation, spurred business growth, improved their communities, and enhanced the digital printing industry. 

Six talented leaders, trailblazers, and innovators will be highlighted in Big Picture’s October print and digital editions and recognized at Printing United in Atlanta alongside the first-ever Women in Screen Printing Award winners, presented by sister publication Screen Printing magazine. 

Nominations will be accepted through August 10; nominees must hold a leadership position at a company that produces wide-format digital print as its primary function. Selections will be based on each woman’s involvement in bettering the people, associations, and industry she influences.

Nominate a deserving candidate today at bigpicture.net/womeninprint. 

Merging Digital Transformation with Information Management in AEC (from aecbytes.com)

Article authored by Nick Nieder of Deltek, published on aecbytes.com on July 22, 2020:

“The AEC industry is at a turning point: Margins are shrinking, but client expectations continue to grow. Beyond that, the current pandemic has gripped the globe, forcing businesses to transform overnight into virtual organizations. As we continue into this unfamiliar territory, companies need to continue to adapt under current conditions. Combine that with the need for businesses to stay profitable and ahead of the competition, many AEC businesses are evaluating ways to pivot their approach within the industry as well as searching for new efficiencies and strategies that enable them to make more informed decisions. 

Some firms have already initiated the necessary operational changes by merging digital transformation with information management. When done right, this strategy can help businesses navigate the pandemic, empower project teams to work more efficiently, and help them identify key trends that inform decision making.”

Link to complete article:

http://www.aecbytes.com/viewpoint/2020/issue_93.html

2020 Top 100 Printers (from printingnews.com)

“Each year, Printing News invites small commercial print business owners to participate in our "Top 100 Shops Survey." The key word is “small." We set an upper limit for participation at $25 million in annual revenues. Our Top Shop this year just barely made the cutoff at $24.99 million, although one suspects they’d have been perfectly happy to be over the limit! 

In 2019, the shops included in our Top 100 list accounted for more than half a billion dollars in revenue— $549,411,144, an increase of 9.3% from 2018. However, sad to say, a certain mitigating factor will likely prevent most shops from seeing any kind of increase in 2020 revenues. If we look at revenues for our top shops, three out of 10 (31%) said 2019 saw a 10%+ increase over 2018—but, not unexpectedly, that same amount are expecting a 10%+ decrease in 2020 compared to 2019.”

LINK TO COMPLETE ARTICLE:

https://www.printingnews.com/business-and-operations-management/article/21133270/2020-top-100-printers

ARC DOCUMENT SOLUTIONS (NYSE: ARC) ISSUES ADVANCE NOTICE THAT SALES FOR Q2 2020 WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 36% DOWN FROM Q2 2019 (Comments Updated)

Update:  Below is a post we published on Reprographics 101 on July 16th, right after ARC issued a Press Release that talked about its "estimated results"for Q2 2020.  A couple of weeks after ARC issued those estimates, ARC published its actual Q2 2020 results.  ARC's actual results were a good bit better than it initially estimated they would be.

MANAGEMENT ALSO REVEALS THAT ARC MOVED SWIFTLY TO RIGHT-SIZE ITS BUSINESS AND EXPENSES BECAUSE OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC.

Q2 2018Sales - $104.2(per prior 10Q)

Q2 2019Sales – $ 98.9(per prior 10Q)

Q2 2020Sales – $ 63.0Million (per ARC estimate furnished in the press release below)

ARC estimates that its Q2 2020 Sales will be approximately 36% off its Q2 2019 Sales.

FROM A PRESS RELEASE DATED JULY 15^th…….

_____________________________________

“ARC SUCCESSFULLY RE-ENGINEERS COMPANY FOR POST-COVID ERA 

Smaller, leaner company expected to produce second quarter EBITDA of approximately $10 million and cash flow from operations above $20 million in spite of reduced sales of approximately $63 million due to COVID-19 shutdowns 

SAN RAMON, CA – (DATE) – ARC Document Solutions, Inc. (NYSE: ARC), a leading document solutions provider to a wide variety of industries, today said it has successfully re-engineered the Company to create opportunities for growth and strong margins in a post-COVID-19 era. 

“While the impact of COVID-19 has been devastating to our industry and the markets we serve, we saw this as an opportunity to transform our business into a smaller but stronger company with potential for new growth and similar, if not better margins,” said Suri Suriyakumar, Chairman, President and CEO of ARC. “We have reimagined our business for a post-COVID era that includes offerings that range well beyond the construction vertical and our historical print segments, and we have aggressively removed costs related to segments of businesses that are no longer relevant to our existing customers.” 

“We have also reconfigured our operating structure and costs to serve new customer needs today and in the future,” said Mr. Suriyakumar. “This will allow us to improve our EBITDA margins, continue to strengthen our cash position, and address a level of sales that is smaller, but has greater potential than our legacy business.” 

Specifically, management reported that after reconfiguring its operations and cost structure, it expects second quarter adjusted EBITDA of approximately $10 million and cash flow from operations is expected to be more than $20 million. 

Management anticipates pandemic-reduced sales of approximately $63 million. 

ARC executives will be available for comment during the company’s second quarter earnings report scheduled for August 4, 2020, after the market close. The earnings call will provide additional details on ARC's financial and operational performance for the period, and updates to current market conditions.”

BLOG PUBLISHER’S COMMENT:

On Friday JUNE 26, 2020, I posted this article on the blog: “What Will the Full Impact of Covid-19 Be” (link):

http://reprographics.blogspot.com/2020/06/what-will-full-impact-of-covid-19.html

And, in that article, I put forth a projection of what I thought ARC’s Q2 2020 Sales would be:

“There is only one publicly-held company in the reprographics industry – ARC Document Solutions (NYSE: ARC).  Based on actual sales numbers I’ve received from larger players in my industry for April and May and what I’m now hearing about June, I’m estimating that ARC’s Q2 2020 Sales will come in at around 40% off ARC’s Q2 2019 Sales.”

So, I was off by 4 percentage points.

US Homebuilder Sentiment Index went down, went back up

READ THESE PARAGRAPHS IN REVERSE ORDER, I.E., START WITH THE ONE AT THE BOTTOM, THEN WORK YOUR WAY UP.

Reported on June 16, 2020….

US Homebuilder Sentiment Stronger than Forecast

The NAHB housing market index in the US climbed 21 points from the previous month to 58in June 2020, easily beating market expectations of 45, as several states lifted the lockdowns restrictions imposed to combat COVID-19. The current single-family sub-index rose to 63 from 42 in May and the one foor prospective buyers went up to 43 from 21. Additionally, the gauge for home sales over the next six months increased to 68 from 46  

2020-06-16

Reported on May 18, 2020….

US Homebuilder Sentiment Rebounds Slightly

The NAHB housing market index in the US rose to 37in May of 2020 rebounding slightly from 30 in April which was the lowest since June 2012 and above market forecasts of 35. Still, the sentiment remained in the negative territory as the reading came below 50. The index stood at 66 in May 2019 and hiit a high of 76 in December. The current single-family sub-index went up to 42 from 36 in April; the sub-index for home sales for the next six months increased to 46 from 36; and prospective buyers also rose to 21 from 13 

2020-05-18

Reported on April 15, 2020….

US Homebuilder Sentiment Slumps to 8-Year Low

The NAHB housing market index in the US tumbled to 30in April 2020, the lowest since June 2012 and well below market forecasts of 55. The current single-family sub-index declined to 36 from 79 in March; the sub-index for home sales for the next six months dropped to 36 from 75; and prospective buyeers also went down to 13 from 56 

2020-04-15

Reported on March 17, 2020

US Homebuilder Sentiment Falls More than Expected

The NAHB housing market index in the US fell to 72in March of 2020 from 74 in the previous month and below market forecasts of 73. The current single-family sub-index declined to 79 from 81 in February; the sub-index for home sales for the next six months dropped to 75 from 79 and prospective buyerrs also went down to 56 from 57. It is important to note that half of the builder responses were collected prior to March 4, so the recent stock market declines and the rising economic impact of the coronavirus will be reflected more in next month's report, said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz  

2020-03-17

Printing Industry Trend article - Evolution of Workbook for Conference

(I may be off somewhat on the timeline, but this does reflect what has actually happened over the years.)

35 years ago – Workbook was printed and bound.  Lots of pages.  A number of tabs.  3-ring binder with insert for printed cover page.  Everything printed black & white.  400 originals x 200 sets.  Nice print job.  Printed workbooks distributed to conference participants.

25 years ago – Workbook was printed and bound.  Lots of pages.  A number of tabs.  3-ring binder with insert for printed cover page.  Most of the document printed in black & white, but a fair amount of pages printed in color.  400 originals x 200 sets.  Nice print job.  Printed workbooks distributed to conference participants.

15 years ago - Workbook was printed and bound.  Lots of pages.  A number of tabs.  3-ring binder with insert for printed cover page.  Most of the document printed in color.  400 originals x 200 sets.  Nice print job.  Printed workbooks distributed to conference participants.

10 years ago – Workbook not printed to hard copy.  Instead, workbook printed to CD’s.  200 CD’s replicated.  No print job, but a CD replication job.  CD’s distributed to conference participants.

Nowadays – Workbook printed to PDF file.  PDF file posted to web-site hosted in the cloud.  No print job.  Conference participants given “link” to access the PDF file.  PDF file downloaded to participants’ laptops.  No print job, no replication job.  

WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE US LABOR MARKET….. UNEMPLOYMENT, JOBLESS CLAIMS, RE-HIRINGS, ETC.? IS THERE A DISCONNECT? IS THERE ANY REASON TO BE REJOICING THE STATISTICS? I DON’T THINK SO!

First, I’m going to refer you to part of an article that appeared on CNBC on July 1, 2020 (article was updated on July 2, 2020)

Title of that article:

“Stocks rise after better-than-expected jobs report to close out winning week”

“Record jobs gain

Wall Street started the session with sharp gains after the government reported that a record 4.8 million jobs were created in June. Economists were expecting 2.9 million jobs were created. The unemployment rate fell to 11.1% from 13.3% in May. Economists were expecting a rate of 12.4%, according to Dow Jones. 

“Another major surprise here in terms of market expectations,” said Christian Scherrmann, U.S. economist at DWS. “What we’ve seen in May and June is a blueprint for a fast recovery, but only once the virus situation is under control.”

Last month, economists forecast a loss of 8 million jobs in May and the economy gained 2.5 million payrolls instead.

The Labor Department also said, however, that initial jobless claims rose by 1.427 million in the week ending June 27. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected initial U.S. jobless claims to rise by another 1.38 million, down from 1.48 million the week earlier. The data also showed the number of continuing claims — the number of people receiving unemployment benefits for consecutive weeks — rose to 19.29 million, an increase of about 59,000. 

“There’s a disconnect there, when you look at the two numbers,” said Megan Horneman, director of portfolio strategy at Verdence Capital Advisors, referring to the jobs report and the unemployment claims data. “It does show you there is some distortion in the data ... I don’t think the true underlying picture of the labor market will be clear for several months.””

For those of you who want to read the full article that appeared on CNBC, here’s a link to the full article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Now, my comments:

Beginning in mid-March, we saw the beginning of huge numbers of weekly jobless claims (claims being filed for unemployment compensation.)  Now, through June, we’ve seen huge numbers for 15 straight weeks. 

To the opposite, the Fed Gov is reporting record numbers of hiring, which has reduced the unemployment rate (supposedly.)  Many business “pundits” are saying that these record number of hirings show that the US is swiftly recovering from the dismal unemployment situation.   

I call B.S. on that.

And, I call B.S. on that because of the following.  

Beginning in mid-March, many companies around the U.S. began to layoff workers.  That drove workers to the unemployment office – and it increased the unemployment rate.

Later, Congress passed the Cares Act, which included a provision for PPP Loans.  In order for companies to get their PPP loans FORGIVEN, they have to spend a major portion of their PPP loan proceeds on payroll. This caused companies to rehire employees that they had previously laid off.  Many companies, mind you, did not (and still do not) actually NEED these employees.... because their revenues are below, and, in many cases, still well below, where their revenues were before COVID-19 hit.  So, to me, a lot of the “re-hiring” (the record “job gains” being reported) is artificial.  What do you think is going to happen to those jobs after companies run out of PPP money? They are going to right-size their businesses and cut jobs to match what their operations actually need.

Our economy isn’t going anywhere until we get COVID-19 under control.  It is still out of control throughout most of the country. It hasn’t gone on vacation, it has not agreed to take a break so we can get businesses up and running again, and it is not going to “disappear”.

And, if our economy cannot go back to work, then the question remains, what’s the jobs situation going to be?  If there isn’t a second round of PPP loans, don’t expect companies to keep on their payrolls employees that are not needed.  Most businesses cannot afford to sustain losses for an extended period of time. The unemployment rate is likely to rise again, not continue to go down.