ARC Q3 and Q4 2009 results - my "estimates"

Okay, this is my first time playing financial analyst. I guess if "they" can come up with estimates, so can I. As to the financial analysts that follow ARC, what do they know that I don't know, and, what do I know that they don't know?

Okay, when Suri (ARC's CEO) made a downward revision to ARC's full year 2009 EPS, he also, when they were talking about the loan restructuring transaction, said that the costs of that loan restructuring transaction would be about $.05 - $.07 per share. He also said, if I'm remembering this correctly, that ARC would earn between $.27 and $.33 (EPS) for the full year 2009, "excluding" the costs of the loan restructuring transaction.

Okay, ARC's going to announce its Q3 2009 earnings this week, and here are my predictions of ARC's Q3 and Q4 2009 results:

Q3 2009 Sales - $118 million
Q3 2009 EPS - $.06 per share (prior to any one-time charge for the loan restructuring transaction.)
If the loan restructuring transaction is booked in Q3, then ARC's EPS, after deducting $.06 per share for the costs of the loan restructuring transaction, will be $.00 (EPS).

Q4 2009 Sales - $110.9 million
Q4 2009 EPS - $.00 per share (prior to any one-time charge for the loan restructuring transaction.)
If the loan restructuring transaction is booked in Q4, then ARC's EPS, after deducting $.06 per share for the costs of the loan restructuring transaction, will be -$.06 (EPS).

As to my 2009 "full year" estimates:
ARC reported EPS of $.14 in Q1 2009
ARC reported EPS of $.17 in Q2 2009
My predictions are that ARC's combined EPS for Q3 and Q4 2009 will be $.06 (regular EPS, excluding the one-time charge for loan restructuring costs).
Okay, that means "regular" EPS of $.37 for 2009
And, if the restructuring costs are $.06 EPS, that will net ARC's EPS to $.31, including loan restructuring costs.

My EPS estimates are slightly higher than the revised EPS estimates that Suri and Jonathan (ARC's CFO) gave.

These predictions DO NOT INCLUDE any provision ARC may take for goodwill impairment!

Anybody got a crystal ball that works? If so, I'd like your crystal ball.

On November 3rd, trading action in ARC stock was very, very high; over 800,000 shares traded - almost twice ARC's average daily trading volume. Investors getting in ahead of a "positive" earnings "surprise"? Or, investors getting out ahead of a "negative" earnings "surprise"? I certainly don't know. I guess it was a positive sign for the stock that in spite of all that buying and selling, the stock closed at the same price it opened, $5.75 per share.

DISCLOSURE: I own stock in ARC (albeit a very miniscule percentage of ARC's total O/S shares).