Thursday, January 21, 2016

Recession looming???

In a recent e-mail I received from a financial analyst who follows the stock market, he said that rail-car shipments have trended down and that that trend has always been a leading indicator of an upcoming recession.

I also want to point you to this .....

Dr. Hussman calls recession:

“Since October, the economic evidence has shifted from supporting a growing risk of recession, to a guarded expectation of recession, to the present conclusion that a U.S. recession is not only a risk but an imminent likelihood….”

And, Dr. Hussman expects the S&P to fall at least 40-55% (from its recent peak):

“We’ll certainly welcome outcomes that better reflect our experience in other complete market cycles, but we won’t do touchdown dances if the market collapses. The likely distress as the current market cycle is completed is something I wish on nobody. The unfortunate reality is that someone will have to hold stocks over the completion of this cycle, and it would best be those who have either carefully evaluated and dismissed our concerns, or those who have appropriate risk tolerances and investment horizons to weather the likely 40-55% loss in the S&P 500 that would comprise a rather run-of-the-mill retreat from the 2015 valuation extremes.”

Read Dr. Hussman’s most recent complete market-commentary at this link:

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