In a recent e-mail I received from a financial analyst who follows the stock market, he said that rail-car shipments have trended down and that that trend has always been a leading indicator of an upcoming recession.
I also want to point you to this .....
Dr. Hussman calls recession:
“Since October, the economic evidence has shifted from supporting a growing risk of
recession, to a guarded
expectation of recession, to the present conclusion that a U.S.
recession is not only a risk but an imminent likelihood….”
And, Dr. Hussman expects the
S&P to fall at least 40-55% (from its recent peak):
“We’ll certainly welcome outcomes that better reflect our experience in
other complete market cycles, but we won’t do touchdown dances if the market
collapses. The likely distress as the current market cycle is completed is
something I wish on nobody. The unfortunate reality is that someone will have
to hold stocks over the completion of this cycle, and it would best be those
who have either carefully evaluated and dismissed our concerns, or those who
have appropriate risk tolerances and investment horizons to weather the likely
40-55% loss in the S&P 500 that would comprise a rather run-of-the-mill
retreat from the 2015 valuation extremes.”
Read
Dr. Hussman’s most recent complete market-commentary at this link:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc160118.htm
But, this guy says that we are headed for further
growth in 2016!
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