Saturday, April 11, 2009

Comments about ARC’s stock price – and ENTER A CONTEST TO WIN A PRIZE FOR GUESSING ARC’S Q1 2009 SALES

This post is another brief follow-up to previous posts about ARC’s stock price. (ALSO, IF YOU WANT TO ENTER A CONTEST AND WIN A PRIZE WORTH $100, READ THIS ENTIRE POST.)

In one of my previous posts, I suggested that there are at least two ways to make money in the reprographics business: (1) earn money from owning a profitable reprographics company, (2) earn money by owning a piece of another reprographics company (if you buy low and sell for more than you paid for it, of course.) In another previous post, when ARC’s stock price was at $2.68 per share, I said “it does feel like ARC’s stock is definitely undervalued.”

For anyone who bought 20,000 shares of ARC stock (NYSE: ARP) when ARC fell to $2.54 per share, which was only a few weeks ago, those 20,000 shares, at the price per-share ARC closed at on Thursday April 9th, were worth $44,400 more. (Investment $50,800, Value $95,200, Increase in value $44,400.) Of course, only “realized” gains count. For what goes up can come down.

When ARC’s stock price fell to $2.54 per share, that computed a market-cap of $116 million for “all of” ARC. (ARC paid $100 mil for Ridgways alone!)

Now that ARC’s stock price has “rebounded” to $4.76 per share, that computes to a market-cap of just over $217 million.

The “big question”, now, is what will happen to ARC’s price-per-share when ARC releases its Q1 2009 results? Will it go up? Will it go down? Will it stay where it now is?

(Figures below are per information published on Google Finance):

ARC’s Q4 2007 Total Revenues were $174 mil
ARC’s Q4 2008 Total Revenues were $154 mil
Equates to a drop of 11.5%

ARC’s Q1 2008 Total Revenues were $187 mil
What will ARC’s Q1 2009 Total Revenues be? (see “Contest” immediately below)


Prize: Contest Winner will receive a $100 gift certificate at his/her favorite restaurant. (After the Contest Winner has been determined, I will e-mail the Contest Winner to find out his/her favorite restaurant and I will make arrangements for the gift certificate.)

Contest Entry Deadline: April 21, 2009. (Deadline extended to May 1, 2009)

How to Enter Contest: If you want to participate in this Contest, you must e-mail me (at with your guess at ARC’s Q1 2009 Total Revenues no later than 11:59 pm on April 21, 2009. Only one guess (only one entry) per participant! (Contest Entry Deadline extended to May 1, 2009.)

How Contest Winner Will Be Determined: The person who comes closest to ARC’s actual Q1 2009 Total Revenues, will be the Contest Winner. The Winner will be determined when ARC announces its Q1 2009 Total Revenues.

Eligibility for this Contest: Only persons who are, or who were, actively employed in the reprographics industry (reprographers and vendors included) are eligible for this contest.

Not Eligible for this Contest: Employees of ARC (this includes employees, officers and directors of ARC) are not eligible.

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