AIA ABI Index - - - thoughts on future movement of this Index

According to what the AIA says about its "ABI Index", when the index is less than 50 that means that the Architecture Industry is in a declining mode, and, conversely, when the index is 50 or above that means that the Architecture Industry is in a growth mode.

The AIA ABI Index has been below 50 for quite a number of months by now. A few months ago, one of my friends and I agreed to a bet - I bet him that the ABI Index would remain below 50 for January, February and March 2010. He bet that the ABI Index would hit above 50 in Q1 2010. So far, I'm ahead. The AIA will report the index for March about 8 days from now. I don't think the ABI Index will see 50 or above for March.

I'm not much of a prognosticator, but, why not take a shot, anyway. I think the ABI Index will hit 50 or above in May 2010, and I also think that the Index will stay at 50 or greater for a long consecutive string of months. I think we are going to see the A/E Industry (in the U.S.) begin its recovery process, finally. It will take a while for that to benefit the Construction side of the business and A/E/C reprographers.