Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Estimates for ARC (NYSE: ARP) for Q2 2010 - UPDATE TO PREVIOUS POST!!!

On July 25th, I did a fairly long-winded post about estimates for ARC for Q2 2010.

Now, I'm going to update the 'analyst estimates' that were in that post. In the July 25th post, I cautioned you that analysts do, on occasion, update their previously-issued estimates.

I've already mentioned to you that I'm a subscriber to Morningstar Research (a huge company, but one that no longer follows or reports on ARC), and that I'm also a subscriber to PAA Research (PAA is smaller than Morningstar, but PAA does research and report on ARC, and word has it that some of the financial industry's largest hedge fund operators are subscribers to PAA's research. I don't think I was supposed to mention that, but, oh well, I just did.)

Within the past week, PAA Research conducted and completed a survey of reprographers. The survey that PAA Research did should not be confused with the survey that Baird & Co is doing in cooperation with the IRGA. I've seen both surveys - PAA's and Baird's - they are very different. I consider myself to be fairly knowledgeable about the reprographics business and industry - some say I am an expert (hmmmm) - all I've got to say is that PAA's survey includes the types of questions I would be asking if I were doing a survey - in other words, Mr. Safalow, a financial person, DOES "get" our industry. I certainly can't say that about a lot of other "finance" people who attempt to follow and report on the reprographics industry.

This paragraph appeared in my July 25th post:
Okay, now I’ll give you a roundup of the revenue and earnings estimates I’ve found for ARC for Q2 2010. Please note that I did my research for this post today, July 25th, and analysts frequently revise and update their estimates, so this roundup is “as of today.”

Now, read this:
One analyst who follows ARC, PAA Research, issued revised estimates for ARC (NYSE: ARP) on July 28th. I've updated the estimates that appear below for the revised PAA Research estimates:

Prior numbers, for reference purposes:

Revenue Q2 2009 (same quarter, last year): $131.05 (million)
EPS Q2 2009: $.14

Revenue Q1 2010 (previous quarter, this year): $112.2 (million)
EPS Q1 2010: $.02


On Finance:
Number of analysts: 3
High estimate: $117.45 (million)
Low estimate: $113.83 (million)
Average estimate: $115.76 (million)

As per article of April 8, 2010 - Estimate: $118.5 (million)
As per article on July 28, 2010 - Estimate revised to $123.5 (million)


Number of estimates: 2
High Estimate: $.09
Low Estimate: $.04
Mean Estimate: $.07

Number of estimates: 4
High Estimate: $.06
Low Estimate: $.04
Mean Estimate: $.05

On Finance:
Number of estimates: 3
High Estimate: $.06
Low Estimate: $.04
Average Estimate: $.05

As per article of April 8, 2010 - Estimate: $.10
As per article on July 28, 2010 - Estimate remains at $.10

- - - - - - - - -

Joel's estimates for ARC’s numbers for Q2 2010 remain at:
Revenues, $119.5 (million)
EPS: $.08

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