My SWAEG Estimates for ARC Q4 2009 Results (as revised)

Okay, it’s “SWAEG” time –for ARC’s Q4 2009 results!
(“SWAEG” stands for “silly-wild-ass-EDUCATED-guess.”)

In November, when I posted my “guess” at ARC’s Q3 2009 Sales and EPS;

- I guessed that ARC’s Q3 2009 Sales would be $118.0 million.
And, ARC’s actual reported Q3 2009 Sales ended up being $119.4 million.

- and, in spite of the fact that the First Call” consensus estimate was for $.01 EPS, I guessed that ARC’s Q3 2009 EPS would be $.06.
And, ARC’s actual reported Q3 2009 EPS was $.06 (so I was “spot on” with that particular guess.)

In that same November post, I also guessed what ARC’s Sales and EPS would be for Q4 2009;

- I guessed that ARC’s Q4 2009 Sales would be $110.9 million.

- and, in spite of the fact that the First Call consensus EPS estimate, at that time, was that ARC’s Q4 2009 EPS would be a loss (if I’m recalling this correctly, of around -$.03, I guessed that ARC’s Q4 2009 EPS would be $.00.

ARC will not report its actual Sales and EPS for Q4 2009 until February 25, 2010 (after market-close), but ARC did, on January 27th, issue revised guidance for FY 2009 (courtesy of Reuters.com, that revised guidance appears immediately below):

American Reprographics Company Raises FY 2009 EPS Guidance
Wednesday, 27 Jan 2010 04:45pm EST
American Reprographics Company announced that it expects to exceed its previously announced annual earnings per share (EPS) forecast for fiscal 2009. The Company now anticipates EPS (on a fully-diluted basis) to be in the range of $0.35 to $0.38, excluding previously announced one-time charges. The Company said that its EPS performance was the result of a lesser decline in fourth quarter revenues. The Company's previously announced EPS forecast was in the range of $0.27 to $0.33. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts were expecting the Company to report EPS of $0.30 for fiscal 2009.

Now, since the analysts get to revise their estimates, it is only fair that I get to do that as well! My revised estimates – for Q4 2009 - are based partly on what ARC’s revised-FY 2009 guidance said, based partly on two recent reprographics industry surveys I’ve read, and based partly on discussions I’ve had with industry friends, and based partly on the fact that Q4 is traditionally the worst Q in the reprographics business in the U.S.

My revised estimates for ARC’s Q4 2009 results:

- Q4 2009 Sales - $113.0 million
- Q4 2009 EPS - $.03 **
(** excluding Goodwill impairment charges and any other non-recurring, one-time charges.)

ARC’s revised FY 2009 EPS guidance:
- FY 2009 EPS will be from $.35 to $.38
(excluding Goodwill impairment charges and any other non-recurring, one-time charges, such as the debt-restructuring charges ARC took for Q3)

My revised FY 2009 EPS estimate:
- FY 2009 EPS will be $.40 **
(** excluding Goodwill impairment charges and any other non-recurring, one-time charges, such as the debt-restructuring charges ARC took for Q3)

So, what I’m guessing is that there will be another small “earnings surprise” when ARC releases its actual numbers on Feb 25th.