Friday, September 30, 2011

Recession, new or double-dip, does it really matter? All I can say is STFU!

Sorry, but I find stories like this one amusing. (see article below). This is not the only “story” currently on the Internet about the likelihood of a “double-dip” recession being imminent.

First, I’d like to point out that “officially” the “last” recession ended (per some government geniuses, who follow, and report on the statistics) in June 2009. So, if the recession that (reportedly) started in December 2007 (which was the month we sold our company) ended in June 2009, then we’ve been “out of recession” for over two years. So, if we are, again, going to dip into recession, this one is a “new one”, not a “double-dip”. Not that that matters.

Secondly, when I walk around the Back Bay area of Boston, which is where most of Boston’s nice stores are located, I don’t see much, if any, signs of a recession. People are shopping, people are carrying bags (meaning, they are buying stuff, not just looking at stuff.) (Sadly, when I visit shopping areas in the Tampa Bay, FL area, it does feel like there’s a recession, so there’s definitely a difference, economy-wise, Tampa area vs. Boston area.) I went to buy a new car in August and could not get a great deal on a new car – got just an okay deal – and that was because the dealers I visited (and I visited 7 different dealerships) were low on inventory, at least on the model I was interested in buying.

I think people (most people) should simply ignore the media and what the media has to say about recession, double-dip or otherwise, and simply go about their business, look for jobs, work hard in the job they are already in, and adopt a positive mindset. There is power in “positive thinking”. All of the negative ranting gets us nowhere and puts us in a funk. If you think things are going to be shitty, they will be shitty. And, the reverse is probably just as true.

Okay, here’s the article I found on After the article, I’ve posted some of the “reader responses.”

"Forecast says double-dip recession is imminent"

By Chris Isidore @CNNMoney September 30, 2011: 10:23 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The U.S. economy is staring down another recession, according to a forecast from the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"It's either just begun, or it's right in front of us," said Lakshman Achuthan, the managing director of ECRI. "But at this point that's a detail. The critical news is there's no turning back. We are going to have a new recession."

The ECRI produces widely-followed leading indicators which predict when the economy is moving between recession and expansion. Achuthan said all those indicators are now pointing to a new economic downturn in the immediate future.

His recession call puts him ahead of most other forecasters. A CNNMoney survey of economists this week pointed to a one-in-three chance of a new recession in the next six months. The most bearish predictions put the odds at 50-50.

Achuthan said it is still possible that the recession will be mild this time, lasting less than a year with relatively limited job losses. But he said if there are shocks to the system, such as another financial meltdown due to the European sovereign debt crisis, it could become a very serious and deep recession.

His call comes the day after the government's final report on second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic health, showed weak growth of only 1.3% in the three months ending in June. Achuthan said he's confident that the recession either began in the third quarter, which ends today, or will begin in the fourth quarter.

The average American is already more bearish than most economists. A CNN/ORC International poll shows 90% of those polled believe current economic conditions are poor.

Here’s some of the reader responses, so far:

* It would be great if these forecasters would just shut up!! I read that housing sales were up, first time jobless clams are down. There are many relatively good news, which always ends with, but don't think its over. Somebody just want this uncertainty to go on, so that everybody is scared and holds on to their money. It appears orchestrated.

* "Forecast says double-dip". Common sense says, "Duh."

* I love these "news" that are not news. These morons must live under a rock, because as far as I am concerned, and what I see as a business owner, we have been in one since 2008 and it's only getting worse. But that's okay, because when Wall Street is up 200 points next week, everything is okay again. Bunch of blithering idiots we have in charge, who do nothing to tackle fundamental problems, and only throw more of OUR money to banks who do nothing but squander it and pay millions to their key employees.

* Here come the market geniuses who called the first "double-dip" wrong, trying to make themselves look good by calling this pullback the same double-dip. The Great recession started in late 2007, four years ago. Just how far out in the future will it be before they stop referring to their mistaken forecast for a double-dip and properly refer to it as another (different) recession?

* This isn't news. Everyone on main street already damn well knew that the economy sucked and wasn't getting any better. Apparently, economists are late to the party and are trying to make up for the fact that the science in their field is just out of touch with reality. Kudos to all our Congressional representatives for screwing up this country in record time.

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