Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Are you now heavily invested in the stock market?

A bit off topic, but for those of you who are following the stock market - - and are heavily invested in stocks – reading Dr. John Hussman’s “weekly market comments” would scare the wits out of you.  He is the ultimate contrarian (I think “contrarian” is the right word.)

If you are heavily invested in the market, Dr. Hussman presents a completely opposite opinion from those who are calling for the market to continue higher.

His latest two weekly market comments are below:

June 3, 2013:  “Following the Fed to 50% Flops”

“One of the most strongly held beliefs of investors here is the notion that it is inappropriate to “Fight the Fed” – reflecting the view that Federal Reserve easing is sufficient to keep stocks not only elevated, but rising. What’s baffling about this is that the last two 50% market declines – both the 2001-2002 plunge and the 2008-2009 plunge – occurred in environments of aggressive, persistent Federal Reserve easing.
It’s certainly true that favorable monetary conditions are helpful for stocks, on average. But that average hides a lot of sins.”

Link to full article:

June 10, 2013:  “2009 vs. 2013”

“Let’s begin with a reminder of where we are in the market cycle. At present, the stock market is in a mature, heavily bullish, overbought, overvalued bull market advance, near a multi-year high in the S&P 500, with consumer confidence at similar multi-year highs, with the broad perception that downside risk is insignificant, and that “tail risk” has been eliminated. This is a dangerous place to be, because it is precisely where risk aversion is scarce and hated most by investors, and where risk aversion is most likely to be rewarded in the future.”

Link to full article:

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