More on Autodesk stock (ADSK)…. cratered even further today

I’ve stated this before, so this is just a reminder. There used to be a slogan, “when E.F. Hutton talks, people listen” …. and I coined the term, “when Joel buys, sell.” Let me go on, and you’ll see why I’m giving you this reminder….

Earlier today, I did a post about the cratering of Autodesk’s (ADSK) stock. I said that even though Autodesk came out with good results, its stock cratered.

Well, it’s now after the closing bell on Friday, and Autodesk’s stock continued to crater today, closing at $23.41, down $3.10 today, down 11.7% for the day. Wow!

That also means that Autodesk’s stock has fallen 40% since July 23, 2011, when the stock was trading at $36.61. (And the 52 week high for this stock, per Google, was $46.15.) Wow!

Okay, here’s why I reminded you that, “when Joel buys, sell.”…… On Monday, I’m going to buy a serious chunk of Autodesk stock for my long-term, non-dividend paying portfolio. I think ADSK is now seriously undervalued. This is your signal to “short” ADSK! In other words, if you do the opposite of what I’m going to do, you’ve got an 80% chance of winning.

From an article on BeaconEquity.com (stock market watch) late this afternoon:

Autodesk Quarterly Sales Update

8/19/2011 2:13:42 PM

Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK). Last Market Price: 23.6, Change: -2.91, % Change: (-10.98%). Shares trade in the range of 23.51 - 27.40 dollars. It has a market capitalization of 5.45B dollars, making it a Mid Cap Stock and has 230.95M outstanding shares. The company has a beta of 2.11, indicating, the stock to be more volatile than the market. As per the most recent quarterly report, the net income per share (EPS) is 1.04; P/E of 22.69. It operates in Technology sector and belongs to Software and Programming industry. Percentage shares held by institutional investors is 93%. The company has a 52 week high of $ 46.15 and a 52 week low of $ 23.51. Average volumes of shares traded daily are 4,190,000. Volume traded in the last session was at 12,120,000, 2.89 times the average volume.

For Q2 (Apr '11), It had a Net profit margin of 13.12%, an Operating margin of 14.88%. Other Key stats and ratios are : Return on average assets of 9.77%, Return on average equity of 16.54%. The organization has an employee strength of 6,800

Senior management consists of Carl Bass, ( Age: 53 ), as President, Chief Executive Officer, Director, Mark J. Hawkins, ( Age: 52 ), as Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President and Christopher Bradshaw, ( Age: 48 ), as Senior Vice President, Chief Marketing Officer. Pascal W. Di Fronzo, ( Age: 46 ), as Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary Jan Becker, ( Age: 58 ), as Senior Vice President - Human Resources and Corporate Real Estate

Consensus Recommendation is a Outperform.

Estimate for sales for the Quarter Ending Oct-11 show a mean of 540.80 million dollars, an estimate high of 549.00 million dollars and an estimate low of 528.90 million dollars. A year ago the figures stood at 521.07 million dollars.

Estimate for sales for the Quarter Ending Jan-12 show a mean of 582.21 million dollars, an estimate high of 599.40 million dollars and an estimate low of 565.06 million dollars. A year ago the figures stood at 559.12 million dollars.

Estimate for EPS for the Quarter Ending Oct-11 show a mean of 0.41 dollars, an estimate high of 0.43 dollars and an estimate low of 0.39 dollars. A year ago the figures stood at 0.39 dollars.

Estimate for EPS for the Quarter Ending Jan-12 show a mean of 0.46 dollars, an estimate high of 0.49 dollars and an estimate low of 0.40 dollars. A year ago the figures stood at 0.44 dollars.

Sales for Quarter Ending Jul-11 was estimated at 539.29 million dollars, however the actual sales figure stood at 546.30 million dollars, 7.01 million dollars more than estimates.

Sales for Quarter Ending Apr-11 was estimated at 523.23 million dollars, however the actual sales figure stood at 528.30 million dollars, 5.07 million dollars more than estimates.