In January, ARC issued a press release indicating that it will release its full year 2011 results on Feb 21st. On January 19th, we posted an announcement about a contest to “guess ARC’s full-year 2011 Sales Revenues.”
The table, below, shows you what “analysts” are estimating ARC’s full-year 2011 Sales will be (as per yahoo finance, Feb 9 2012)
| Revenue Estimates | Current Qtr. | Next Qtr. | Current Year | Next Year |
| NYSE: ARC | 11-Dec | 12-Mar | 11-Dec | 12-Dec |
| Avg. Estimate | 100.00M | 107.22M | 420.92M | 427.97M |
| No. of Analysts | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Low Estimate | 98.52M | 107.22M | 419.41M | 423.04M |
| High Estimate | 101.00M | 107.22M | 422.00M | 435.00M |
| Year Ago Sales | 104.97M | 106.50M | 441.64M | 420.92M |
| Sales Growth (year/est) | -4.70% | 0.70% | -4.70% | 1.70% |
Deadline for entries was February 7th at 5:00 pm. Per my blog’s Google Analytics statistics, 136 blog-visitors read the contest announcement, but only 5 people submitted guesses for the contest.
Here are the “guesses” we received.
| $464.88 |
| $437.00 |
| $421.50 |
| $421.00 |
| $420.93 |
One of the entries - $421.00 - is, quite obviously, “boxed in” on the top and bottom. As a special consideration for that contest entry, if person who guessed $421.00 wins the contest, the prize will be doubled.
We will only announce the winner of the contest if the winner gives us permission to post his/her name.
In the table above, I included the column that shows analysts’ current estimates of ARC’s full-year 2012 Sales – I think their estimates are low.
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Just FYI on ARC's SEC filings. See the document filed 2/13/12. Unless I am reading it wrong, it looks like the combined holdings of Stadium Capital Management and Stadium Capital Partners is nearing 25%.
ReplyDeletehttp://ir.e-arc.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=184915&p=irol-sec
Well, thanks for the comment, but I don't think that's the case. After I received your comment, I sent the SEC document to a friend who is a financial analyst (one who follows ARC) and asked him for "his take" on the percentage owned by Stadium Capital (both entities, combined), and he just reported back to me that he thinks SC's interest (collectively) is now right around 12.8%. If someone knows something different, or thinks this is not correct, then please submit a comment. Thank you.
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