Saturday, February 11, 2012

RE: Contest to Guess ARC’s Full-year 2011 Sales Revenues

In January, ARC issued a press release indicating that it will release its full year 2011 results on Feb 21st. On January 19th, we posted an announcement about a contest to “guess ARC’s full-year 2011 Sales Revenues.”

The table, below, shows you what “analysts” are estimating ARC’s full-year 2011 Sales will be (as per yahoo finance, Feb 9 2012)

Revenue Estimates

Current Qtr.

Next Qtr.

Current Year

Next Year

NYSE: ARC

11-Dec

12-Mar

11-Dec

12-Dec

Avg. Estimate

100.00M

107.22M

420.92M

427.97M

No. of Analysts

3

1

3

3

Low Estimate

98.52M

107.22M

419.41M

423.04M

High Estimate

101.00M

107.22M

422.00M

435.00M

Year Ago Sales

104.97M

106.50M

441.64M

420.92M

Sales Growth (year/est)

-4.70%

0.70%

-4.70%

1.70%

Deadline for entries was February 7th at 5:00 pm. Per my blog’s Google Analytics statistics, 136 blog-visitors read the contest announcement, but only 5 people submitted guesses for the contest.

Here are the “guesses” we received.

$464.88

$437.00

$421.50

$421.00

$420.93

One of the entries - $421.00 - is, quite obviously, “boxed in” on the top and bottom. As a special consideration for that contest entry, if person who guessed $421.00 wins the contest, the prize will be doubled.

We will only announce the winner of the contest if the winner gives us permission to post his/her name.

In the table above, I included the column that shows analysts’ current estimates of ARC’s full-year 2012 Sales – I think their estimates are low.

2 comments:

  1. Just FYI on ARC's SEC filings. See the document filed 2/13/12. Unless I am reading it wrong, it looks like the combined holdings of Stadium Capital Management and Stadium Capital Partners is nearing 25%.
    http://ir.e-arc.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=184915&p=irol-sec

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  2. Well, thanks for the comment, but I don't think that's the case. After I received your comment, I sent the SEC document to a friend who is a financial analyst (one who follows ARC) and asked him for "his take" on the percentage owned by Stadium Capital (both entities, combined), and he just reported back to me that he thinks SC's interest (collectively) is now right around 12.8%. If someone knows something different, or thinks this is not correct, then please submit a comment. Thank you.

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